OnYou can read the full article in the following link. The key takeaways include:
- On North Korean trade in 2016 has grown over 2015 (when it had dropped for the first time in 16 years), which is counterintuitive.
- The trade deficit in 2016, and actually each year since Kim Jong-un has taken power, is below the average of 2005-2012.
- We see no obvious effect of the closing of the Kaesong Industrial Zone on North Korean imports.
- With cash reserves of just 2 billion US$, and at the current levels of price and usage, the North Korean government could procure oil for the next five years without exporting a singe item.
- Only ten years ago, North Korea was able to exist comfortably with just one third of its current trade.