EcoS Guest Lecture with Prof. Dr. Bernhard Seliger

The year 2024 saw a strengthening of the North Korea alliance with Russia, including North Korean participation in the Ukraine war, numerous exchanges and an opening for Russian tourism to North Korea. Domestically, the 20x10 policy of local development tried to accelerate the building of modern municipal factories in 20 cities and counties each year for the next ten years. However, it is unclear if this is merely a continuation of the policy of autarky on the regional and municipal level, which already started in 2019, or where investment funds for new factories should come from. While the absence of foreign observers does not allow for a systematic review of levels of consumption, anecdotal evidence from North Korea seems to confirm that food shortages are widespread in the countryside. The average harvest plus some moderate Russian delivery of food aid did not fundamentally improve nutrition in the country and food prices in the past months skyrocketed. In this situation, what are the prospects for 2025? A larger opening of the tourism sector, including opening of the Kalma resort in Wonsan, could lead to an urgently needed inflow of hard currency earnings, but it is questionable how fast and how far the opening will go. It depends also crucially on what the currency earnings are spend for. Further trade liberalization and internal market liberalization could free up market forces, but inevitably would go hand in hand with a loss of political control and therefore are unlikely. The surprise move to cut off all ties and ideological bonds with South Korea in early 2024 makes a resumption of cooperation with South Korea much more difficult, if not impossible.  It is crucial how the war in Ukraine, which defines the alliance with Russia, will proceed, and how North Korea will react to possible renewed negotiations with the incoming US administration. 

Since 2002, Dr. Bernhard Seliger is representative of Hanns Seidel Foundation in Korea. He frequently travelled to North Korea, implementing capacity-building projects, among others in forestry and biodiversity, and previously in renewable energy and the Clean Development Mechanism as well as trade and the economy. He also is honorary professor for economics, in particular of Northeast Asia, at Zwickau University of Applied Sciences in Germany, where he collaborates with the East Asia Center. From 1998 to 2002 he worked as a professor at the Graduate School of International and Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Dr. Seliger earned a habilitation at the University of Witten-Herdecke (2007) and a doctorate (Dr.sc.pol.) at the Institute for Economic Policy, Kiel University, Germany (1998) and a first degree from Université de Paris I (Panthéon-Sorbonne, France, 1994). Dr. Seliger is honorary citizen of Seoul (2007) and Gangwon Province (2012). 

Date: January 27 (Monday), 2025, 16:45–18:15 (CET; UTC+1)
Venue: Sinology Conference Room (adjacent to the EcoS Office, 2F-O1-27A), Hof 2, Entrance 2.3, AAKH Campus, Spitalgasse 2, 1090 Vienna, Austria